Professor João Victor-Neto from FGV EBAPE published an article titled "Direitas, volver" in the Folha de S.Paulo on October 18, 2024, in which he analyzes the evolution of right-wing factions in Brazil and their impact on the 2024 municipal elections. The study is based on the classifications proposed by political scientists Timothy Power and Rodrigo Rodrigues-Silveira, who identify four types of right-wing movements in the country: economic liberal, moral conservative, nostalgic for the military dictatorship, and pragmatic.
The article reveals that, driven by bolsonarism, the right-wing faction nostalgic for the military dictatorship has overshadowed the traditional pragmatic right, which had dominated many cities for decades. Professor João Victor-Neto argues that this conservative and militaristic faction won a significant number of mayoral seats in 2024, surpassing expectations after Jair Bolsonaro's defeat in the 2022 elections.
According to the professor’s analysis, despite the growth of the Workers' Party (PT) in some regions, the left as a whole lost ground compared to its 2020 performance, with a decline of about 10% in the number of mayoral positions won. Meanwhile, the political center, which also experienced a contraction of approximately 5%, saw its space occupied by these new expressions of the right.
The article also highlights the uncertain future of bolsonarist right-wing politics, with Bolsonaro's ineligibility for the upcoming presidential elections, emphasizing the importance of choosing his successor for the 2026 race.